Inaugurated

It was a bit of an adventure to watch the inauguration yesterday. I had planned to meet with Greg at Harry's New York Bar, a moderately famous little place about 25 minutes from our house. Greg was bringing some friends from UNESCO and it was supposed to be a jolly old time. However, Harry's was a bit crowded:


So we made the split decision to run back to our house to watch it there. The deciding factors were the presence of CNN (not guaranteed at other bars) and beer (not guaranteed at UNESCO). This ended up being a really great time as we all watched the inauguration together:


It was a great mix of people and I can't help but feel that the new millennium is only now getting under way. Oh, and to top it all off, we had really good pizza later:

Esther liked it.

Obama Inauguration 2009

The Face of a Nation

The Big Picture has a collection of the best pictures of Obama over the course of the campaign. Via kottke.

Election Night in Paris

Esther and I decided to go to the "official" (which we learned means 'expensive') election night party at CinéAqua, an aquarium/movie theater just across from the Eiffel tower. It wasn't worth the money, but it was a great night nonetheless.

Enjoy the pictures:

Obama Elected

Incredible

If this were a film, the plot would be difficult to believe. This is a victory of intellect over ignorance, truth over innuendo, hope over fear. It is a victory not only for Americans, but for the entire world.

The reaction in France is very positive. Many here thought that the United States would never do this. There was always a rather virulent skepticism about the possibility that we would elect a black man. We've surprised the world and have once again shown another face of American exceptionalism.

This is what pride in my country feels like. Pride not only it's founding principles, that has always been there, but true, deep pride in its current reality. It's a wonderful feeling.

Photo by flickr user alexandra.matzke used under Creative Commons license.

From Whence My Confidence Cometh

Zac's comment to a previous post has prompted my to do what I've been meaning to do for a long time and lay out the reasons that I'm confident for an Obama win in November. Here's the relevant part of Zac's comment:

Obama's lead has apparently vanished as a result of these inane attacks. I think it could go either way at this point (including a massive landslide for McCain).

Zac sees the possibility for things going either way or even a McCain landslide, I see that as highly improbable. Here's why:

First, why does current polling show the race to be "so" close? According to our assumptions, any Democratic candidate should be clobbering any Republican candidate and, indeed, polls have shown a 10 to 15 point lead for "Generic Democrat" against "Generic Republican". This is normal; after all we're mired in an unpopular (but potentially improving) war, the Republican President is rocking a 30% approval rating and, if I can engage in a little understatement, the economy is not doing so hot these days. So why is Obama under-performing his store-brand party mate? I would say that the fact that he is a new-to-the-stage, 46 year-old black guy named Barack Hussein Obama is likely to have something to do with it. Compare that to his opponent, a familiar, moderate (maverick!) war-hero with what Unidentified Male in Copperhill, TN might call an "Anglo-Saxon sounding name." To hear a McCain pollster endorse this line of thinking, you can read this IHT article.

This, of course, doesn't guarantee that Obama will win in November. In fact, it simply says that the polling is accurate given the candidates and that Obama has a 3.5% lead. One point that should be made, with qualifications, is that a 3.5% popular vote (PV) lead is actually a very large electoral vote (EV) win. Historically, a 3.5% win in the PV correlates to a 100 vote (18.5%) win in the EV. Not a landslide, but certainly a comfortable margin. The obvious qualification is that we're still several months out from the election and that, historically, there is a lot of movement during this time, especially around the conventions and debates. Here is the current election compared to that of 2000 and 2004:
Political Arithmetik


To briefly recap, let's look at the argument up to this point:

1. Polling shows Obama with a narrow lead.
2. This is probably pretty accurate.
3. This could easily change

Therefore:

4. Kurt is Confident that Obama will win
QED QED w00t w00t QED!!!1

Now, you don't need to have read The Complete Works of Aristotle to see that that doesn't follow. The missing piece is what we can reasonably expect to happen between now and November and what that means for the election.

Barring major, unexpected events (terrorist attack, resurgent economy, etc...) the two main contributing factors to the November outcome are major public events (namely the conventions and the debates) followed by campaign organization and the "get out the vote" drives of the two campaigns. Both factors are largely in favor of Obama.

First, the conventions. What will be a better image; McCain playing the "cottage cheese in the lime jello" or the first black candidate giving his acceptance speech on the 45th anniversary of King's "I Have a Dream" speech. Certainly, there is a very fine line to be walked when giving a speech so rich in historical allusion and pretext before 75,000 people but I think that Obama has proved himself quite capable in walking fine lines.

Second, the debates. Admittedly, Obama proved himself to be one of the weaker debaters among the other pretenders to the Democratic throne but, up against McCain, there will be a very strong advantage to Obama. To put it quite bluntly, McCain seems to have a very hard time recalling facts, getting his words out, and staying on message, all of which are vital in a debate format. Sure, Obama may be better with a teleprompter than he is off the cuff, but compared to McCain, there's no contest.

Third, and most importantly, organization and get out the vote. First, recall the correlation between popular vote and electoral votes and remember that a few percentage points in the PV makes for a much larger advantage in the EV. If you can get more people interested and involved in your campaign and then get them to the polls on Nov. 4, you can reap a considerable advantage. One way to get people motivated is to have a charismatic and popular candidate (do I need to specify that this is advantage Obama?). Another, often complimentary way, is to have people make phone calls and go door to door talking up your candidate. How do the campaigns match up. To quote Sean at fivethirtyeight.com, "One is an NFL team and the other is now a high school JV team." In terms of numbers, what does that mean? From the same post at fivethirtyeight.com:

Let’s do some quick math. Martin’s reporting suggests to us based on that ratio that nationwide, in one week, the McCain campaign talked to approximately 81,000 voters. The Obama campaign talked to about 27,000 in one state in one night. If we make a reasonable guess that Ohio has something like one-fifteenth of Obama organizers and volunteers, that’d be 405,000 voters contacted in one night nationwide. In 7 days, that’s 2,835,000 voters contacted, compared to the McCain 81,000, a thirty-five-fold edge.

That's a big advantage, if Obama can walk into election day knowing that he has a built in 1-3% advantage, that is quite literally game changing.

That's why I'm confident that Obama will win. How confident? As of today I would buy Obama contracts at Intrade up until 70 which means, I give him a 70% chance of winning if the election were today. Assuming things go as I expect them to over the next few months that will go up considerably.

That said, I'm not expecting an Obama landslide and I agree with Matt Yglesias in thinking that elections should tend to be close. An election is a market like any other and an efficient market will tend towards equilibrium. This is one of the few possible elections where a traditionally liberal black guy named Barack Hussein Obama could be a legitimate nominee. In that respect, the Democrats did well in nominating him as he represents the closest they could get to the "market clearing" nominee, that is, the most extreme nominee that can still win (just as the market clearing price is the highest price where you can sell all or enough of your merchandise). Similarly, the Republicans did well to nominate McCain, the moderate, trusted war hero. He is their best chance at victory. Close elections are a sign of a healthy democracy and, as such, are a good thing.

To close with a video, here's Nate from fivethirtyeight.com talking about their methods and his take on the election. It's a very solid method that they use in their predictions and has been a favorite source of information for me.

Obama: The Anti-Fun Candidate?

From his remarks in Cedar Rapids, Iowa today,

But the time for game-playing is over. That's why I'm running for President.

Hmmn... Not sure how that's going to play in Marvin Gardens, to say nothing of St. James Place.

I must admit that I derive a certain pleasure from watching the McCain camp continue to spin in circles, throwing incoherent, inconsistent, and frequently dishonest messages into the media "chatter" in the hopes that some of it sticks. Since the beginning of my political consciousness (ca. 2000) it is a practice that I had assumed belonged in its entirety to Democrats.

I think that Obama's full response, from which I extracted the quote above, is a solid response to it all. (Via Marc Ambinder.)

We want to have a serious debate. But so far, we've been hearing about Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. I do have to ask my opponent: is that the best you can come up with? Is that really what the election is about? Is that worthy of the American people? Even the media has pointed out...that McCain has fallen back into ... predictable political attacks and demonstratively false statements... Spending all this time talking about me instead of talking about what he's going to do. That's not going to lower your gas prices. That's's not going...to help you find a job if it's been shipped overseas. It doesn't do a single thing to help the American people. It's the politics of the game. But the time for game-playing is over. That's why I'm running for President.....

Given the media response that I've seen in reaction to McCain's lowbrow antics, I think that the message will get through.

Obama à l'Elysée

Friday marked the closest I would get to The Man Himself during the course of the campaign as he made an abbreviated visit to the Elysée Palace to have a short meeting with President Sarkozy followed by a press conference.

Given his popularity here, from all levels of the French population up to Sarkozy himself who, in the days leading up to his visit, remarked, "Obama? He's my buddy!" There was no public interaction scheduled but I felt that it would be worthwhile to go to the presidential residence just to see what could be seen. Clearly I wasn't the only one to be motivated as such:

I would estimate the crowd at several hundred, though separated at different street corners.

It was an incredible mix of people, perhaps 30% American and 70% French all from a variety of origins. I talked to a guy from Gabon for a while. His take was that Obama represented the rêve américain which remains an extremely powerful concept here, especially among immigrants and minorities.

There was a general mood of uncertainty and anticipation. No one, not even the journalists working the crowd, knew much about the itinerary or whether Obama would interact with the public at all. About ten minutes after I arrived, three large buses glided into place and dropped off journalists and campaign staff. I'm pretty sure that I saw Reggie Love, Obama's "body man" and, perhaps, the guy with the coolest name in the history of political aides. A few minutes later, what looked to be a diplomatic procession arrived and a black Cadillac with deep tinted windows slid into the gates of the palace.

I decided to wait until the end, just to see if there would be anything else. During that time more and more people arrived and the scene became more and more animated. The guy from Gabon harassed the police officers block the street a bit and an AFP photographer took in the scene.


At one point, about an hour and a half after the Cadillac entered the palace people started chanting "Obama! Yes we can!" Remembering that I live in the twenty-first century, I took a video with my camera phone. Watch out, it's a bit loud:


Two hours after the anti-climactic entrance, there was an efficient and anonymous exit. The police started their motorcycles, the Crown Victoria with GPS receivers got in position. The crowd got excited and the security personnel got anxious.


The gates to the palace opened, the dark Cadillac rolled out, turned towards the east and, like a hive mind creature, all of the vehicles accelerated away in one large pack; French motorcycle police, French security, black Crown Victoria, black Cadillac, Explorer with Secret Service hanging out, French security, and a few more motorcycles. Here's the best view I got, Obama was on the other side:


I was on my feet in the sun for the better part of three hours, crammed in with a bunch of other spectators trying to steal a sighting of one politician. It seems like it shouldn't be worth it but, in the end, I'm happy to have gone if only for the community aspect of it. Once again, paraphrasing the Gabonese man next to me, a lot of Obama's strength comes not from shockingly new positions, but from his style and his symbolism. It's a style and symbolism that has the power to bring people out of their houses, into the streets and to believe in a better future. As far as a national leader goes, that is an extremely powerful ability. To criticize Obama because he speaks well and draws huge crowds is missing the opportunity that such a capacity presents. In short, these three hours were my "Yes we can" moment and it felt damn good to be there.



Full Photo Album:

Obama at Elyesee

Obama in Detroit

For those of you able to go, he'll be at the Joe on Monday, June 16th. Doors at 6:30pm, warm-up acts coming on at 8:30pm, main event at ???. Since it's free you probably want to show up at about 5pm, June 14th.

Here's the full info, RSVP is requested.

IHT: the French have not been this excited about America since they shipped over the Statue of Liberty in 1885

From the International Herald Tribune, an article about Obamania in France with a mention of the panel discussion from last week.

The IHT quoting Le Figaro, a major French daily:

"You can't welcome it enough, especially in this era of rampant anti-Americanism," Le Figaro, the French daily, said Thursday.

"With Obama, a certain idea of America is back: that of a generous society where equality of opportunity is not an empty promise. Hope and change, key words of his campaign, reinforce this rediscovered ideal, which resonates as much inside the country as beyond."

Also:

Kama Des-Gachons, a 28-year-old Frenchwoman, was one of about 600 young men and women flocking to a panel discussion in Paris on Tuesday about the "Obama Effect in France." Her eyes lit up when she spoke about Obama. Not because he is a Democrat or because he opposed to the war in Iraq. But because his father was an African immigrant, like hers.

"He makes me dream," said Des-Gachons, whose parents came to France from Mali. "I even bought a T-shirt with the American flag. America is the country where you can make it."

American flag T-shirts for French folk? It's the craziness!

Watching History

There’s very little that I can add to the commentary surrounding the dramatically historic events of this past week but at the same time I feel compelled to say something. First, I’d like to share some of what I’ve read that I found particularly insightful or humorous and, second, I’ll add a bit of analysis of the French perspective on the happenings; perhaps one of the few aspects to which I can make a worthwhile contribution.

First, a post from hilzoy at Obsidian Wings commenting on the transformative effect that this nomination holds for a large swath of Americans. (Pointer coming from Ta-Nehisi Coates)

On a much lighter note, I second Andrew Sullivan seconding the Italian.

Finally, the little bit that I can add. I attended a panel discussion at Esther's alma mater, Sciences Po, titled The Obama Effect in France. The panelists were mainly professors of the school including a former European Union deputy (like a congressional representative), a couple of specialists in American history, as well as a real, live super-delegate (Constance Borde, the Vice President of the Democratic Party in France). What was most striking during the discussion was the level of desire among the French to respect the United States once again and how far an Obama presidency would go for achieving that goal. It's not that there is some sort of dislike of the United States that is fundamental to French identity, it's just a rather complicated relationship.

The panelists were also quite astute in noticing the essential differences and the inherent value contained therein between the politics of Bush and those of Obama. Wherein Bush there was a politics of fear cultivated, they rightly noted the politics of hope and change inherent to Obama's message. One went so far as to describe Obama as the answer to the international search for an icon of change.

It was interesting to listen to, not only because it contrasted with the streak of pessimism that I've encountered when talking with many other French people about the prospect of Obama actually being elected. The standard line is, "I would love to see him as the president, but I just don't think it's likely." Often a remark about the power of the Republican Party or the ingrained racism of the county follows. A non-negligible reason for me wanting to see Obama elected would be the refutation of these ideas. One panelist remarked that he would like to see Obama elected because that would mean that the same thing could be possible in France (though they unanimously agreed that it would be quite a long way in the future).

Finally, one more post from Andrew Sullivan that suggests that there is nothing uniquely French to this response.

Obama Conference Call

Continuing with the multimedia Obama day...

Democrats Abroad organized a conference call with the man himself. I fired up Skype and Audacity to share a copy with the masses, here's what you missed:



About what you'd expect, a focus on foreign policy issues over domestic, with a little "I'm one of you" thrown in for good measure. Nothing too shocking, but it was fun to be "on the phone" with Barack.

If I could have said it so well myself...

Coming from John Hodgman (you know, the "resident expert" from The Daily Show and the "PC guy" from the Mac commercials),

"...enjoy this if you like watching pointless confrontation become meaningful conversation."


If only I could imagine myself responding so well to such an aggressive line of questioning. I feel like the interviewer's intention at the outset is to show how little Obama supporters know about the realities of politics, that they're all emotion and no substance. Thankfully he talks to Derrick who says it like it is. Good job Derrick!

More substantively about the health care differences between Clinton and Obama, check out this post from Marginal Revolution. Prof. Cowen is a wickedly smart guy and, according to his Wikipedia entry, a "libertarian bargainer" meaning that he is "someone of libertarian ideals who is not so radical that he cannot influence the 'currently powerful'". The basic conclusion of the post is that, given the goal of cheaper health insurance and, insofar as mandates are competition-stifling, mandates do not achieve the primary goal. Don't forget the social cost of removing personal choice from the equation!

The MR post also goes to show the stable of intellectuals that have gravitated to Obama, here's the opening line, "Cutler is very smart, tenured at Harvard, arguably the leading health care economist, and yes he is an advisor to Barack Obama." What do I see as the main value in an Obama presidency? An analytical chief executive to weigh unpredictable issues as they arise, backed by an army of advisors representing the best in their respective fields, not political cronies from the 90's. In short, a return of intellectualism to the White House, not the bizarre fundamentalism of the past seven years nor the political gaming of the preceding eight.